Brazilian Serie A, round 21 · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · MorumBIS
São Paulo — Santos
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1:2Missed
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, São Paulo to win (47%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 47% fails in about 53 matches out of 100 on average.
São Paulo are clear favourites: 47% against 26% for the opponent, draw 28%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 46%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings São Paulo are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: São Paulo — Santos What is xG? | 1.5–1.0 | |
| São Paulo not to lose | 74% | |
| Santos not to lose | 53% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 46% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 54% |
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Form
- 20.09Internacional1:0
- 16.09Boca Juniors1:1
- 13.09away · Palmeiras0:2
- 09.09away · Boca Juniors0:1
- 06.09Atlético-MG2:0
- 20.09away · Remo2:1
- 17.09away · Atlético-MG2:4
- 13.09Cruzeiro2:1
- 10.09Atlético-MG2:0
- 06.09away · Internacional3:2
Head to head
- 05.02.2026Santos — São Paulo1:1
- 22.09.2025Santos — São Paulo1:0
- 20.04.2025São Paulo — Santos2:1
- 13.11.2023Santos — São Paulo0:0
- 16.07.2023São Paulo — Santos4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
| 10, Copa Sudamericana | São Paulo | 30 | 11 | 0 | 39 |
| 11, Copa Sudamericana | Coritiba | 30 | 10 | -10 | 39 |
Next matches
- CruzeiroSão Paulo8 October · Brasileirao5227211The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.5
- SantosFlamengo9 October · Brasileirao2628462The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 0:2.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →