Brazilian Serie A, round 29 · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Estádio Urbano Caldeira
Santos — Flamengo
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
2:2Missed
In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Flamengo to win (46%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 46% fails in about 54 matches out of 100 on average.
Flamengo are slightly stronger: 46% against 26%, draw 28%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Flamengo are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Santos — Flamengo What is xG? | 1.1–1.5 | |
| Santos not to lose | 54% | |
| Flamengo not to lose | 74% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Santos
- Santos goals
- Flamengo goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month
Form
- 03.10away · São Paulo2:1
- 20.09away · Remo2:1
- 17.09away · Atlético-MG2:4
- 13.09Cruzeiro2:1
- 10.09Atlético-MG2:0
- 21.09RB Bragantino2:1
- 18.09Independiente del Valle1:1
- 13.09Corinthians2:1
- 11.09away · Independiente del Valle2:0
- 06.09away · Remo1:0
Head to head
- 05.04.2026Flamengo — Santos3:1
- 10.11.2025Flamengo — Santos3:2
- 17.07.2025Santos — Flamengo1:0
- 02.11.2023Flamengo — Santos1:2
- 26.06.2023Santos — Flamengo2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1, Copa Libertadores | Flamengo | 30 | 19 | +33 | 64 |
| 2, Copa Libertadores | Palmeiras | 30 | 18 | +30 | 63 |
| 7, Copa Sudamericana | Atlético-MG | 30 | 13 | +6 | 47 |
| 8, Copa Sudamericana | Santos | 30 | 11 | +1 | 42 |
| 9, Copa Sudamericana | RB Bragantino | 30 | 11 | +3 | 40 |
Next matches
- Atlético-MGSantos11 October · Brasileirao5027231The most likely outcome came true: 12:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:1, exactly right.2.7
- FlamengoFluminense11 October · Brasileirao6720121The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.8
Brasileirao on the same day
- 5027231The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.6
- 751691The most likely outcome came true: 14:0Final score 4:0. Model's score: 2:0.3.0
- 5526191The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 1:0, exactly right.2.7
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →