Serie A, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · MAPEI Stadium - Città del Tricolore
Sassuolo — Milan
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In short
Final score 1:1: the model's most likely outcome, Milan to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Milan are clear favourites: 51% against 21% for the opponent, draw 28%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.0 in total, against a competition average of 2.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 57%, both teams to score — 61%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Milan are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sassuolo — Milan What is xG? | 1.2–1.8 | |
| Sassuolo not to lose | 49% | |
| Milan not to lose | 79% | |
| No draw | 72% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 61% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 39% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 57% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 43% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sassuolo
- Sassuolo goals
- Milan goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
Head to head
- 03.05.2026Sassuolo — Milan2:0
- 14.12.2025Milan — Sassuolo2:2
- 03.12.2024Milan — Sassuolo6:1
- 14.04.2024Sassuolo — Milan3:3
- 30.12.2023Milan — Sassuolo1:0
Table
Next matches
- SalzburgMilan15 October · Europa League3226412The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.8
- FrosinoneSassuolo16 October · Serie A323137XThe model's most likely outcome: XModel's score: 2:23.2
Serie A on the same day
- 363133XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:0, exactly right.2.5
- 6126131The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.2.5
- 2131482The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:2, exactly right.2.3
- 1729542The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →