Serie A, round 6 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Stadio Olimpico
Lazio — Monza
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
3:1Came true
In short
Final score 3:1: the model's most likely outcome, Lazio to win (61%), came true.
Lazio are clear favourites: 61% against 13% for the opponent, draw 26%.
2.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.5).
Over 2.5 goals — 47%, both teams to score — 48%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Lazio are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Lazio — Monza What is xG? | 1.8–0.8 | |
| Lazio not to lose | 87% | |
| Monza not to lose | 39% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 48% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 52% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 47% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 53% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Lazio
- Lazio goals
- Monza goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
Head to head
- 09.02.2025Lazio — Monza5:1
- 10.11.2024Monza — Lazio0:1
- 04.05.2024Monza — Lazio2:2
- 23.09.2023Lazio — Monza1:1
- 02.04.2023Monza — Lazio0:2
Table
Next matches
- JuventusLazio18 October · Serie A6223141The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.4
- MonzaCagliari19 October · Serie A3428382The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
Serie A on the same day
- 363133XThe most likely outcome came true: X0:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 0:0, exactly right.2.5
- 2131482The most likely outcome came true: 21:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:2, exactly right.2.3
- 2128512The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:1.3.0
- 1729542The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →