Danish Superliga, round 10 · Sunday, 11 October, 15:00 MSK · JYSK Park

Silkeborg — AC Horsens

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Model prediction and result

3:3Missed

Silkeborg42%

Draw29%

AC Horsens29%

Model estimate at 14:41 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, Silkeborg to win (42%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 42% fails in about 58 matches out of 100 on average.

Silkeborg are slightly stronger: 42% against 29%, draw 29%.

2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (3.0).

Over 2.5 goals — 51%, both teams to score — 58%.

Why

By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Silkeborg — AC Horsens What is xG?		1.5–1.2
Silkeborg not to lose		71%
AC Horsens not to lose		58%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		58%
Both teams to score: no		42%
Total over 2.5		51%
Total under 2.5		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Silkeborg
Silkeborg goals
AC Horsens goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

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Form

Silkeborg

18.09away · Lyngby4:0
13.09Viborg1:1
05.09away · AGF2:2
30.08FC Midtjylland1:1
24.08away · Brøndby IF1:3

AC Horsens

20.09AGF2:2
11.09away · FC København0:2
06.09away · Sønderjyske5:2
28.08Viborg2:3
23.08Lyngby2:1

Head to head

19.05.2023AC Horsens — Silkeborg0:1
11.04.2023Silkeborg — AC Horsens1:2
23.10.2022AC Horsens — Silkeborg3:2
02.10.2022Silkeborg — AC Horsens2:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Championship round	Brøndby IF	10	5	1	4	17–17	0	16
6, Championship round	AC Horsens	10	3	3	4	18–19	-1	12
7, Relegation round	Silkeborg	10	2	5	3	15–15	0	11
8, Relegation round	Randers FC	10	3	1	6	11–16	-5	10

Season 2026/27

Full table

Next matches

20:00
AC HorsensRanders FC16 October · Danish Superliga
393031
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.8
15:00
SønderjyskeSilkeborg18 October · Danish Superliga
432830
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.1

Danish Superliga on the same day

15:00
Randers FCViborg
332938
2The most likely outcome came true: 2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 0:2, exactly right.2.7
17:00
Brøndby IFLyngby
562618
1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 5:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.9
19:00
FC MidtjyllandFC København
332938
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 2Final score 2:1. Model's score: 0:2.3.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →