Peruvian Liga 1 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Miguel Grau del Callao
Sport Boys — Alianza Atlético
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In short
Final score 1:3: the model's most likely outcome, Sport Boys to win (41%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 41% fails in about 59 matches out of 100 on average.
Sport Boys are slightly stronger: 41% against 29%, draw 30%.
The model expects few goals: 2.1 in total, against a competition average of 2.7.
Over 2.5 goals — 36%, both teams to score — 44%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Sport Boys — Alianza Atlético What is xG? | 1.2–1.0 | |
| Sport Boys not to lose | 71% | |
| Alianza Atlético not to lose | 59% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 44% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 56% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 36% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 64% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Sport Boys
- Sport Boys goals
- Alianza Atlético goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · FBC Melgar1:1
- 13.09Deportivo Garcilaso1:0
- 05.09away · Sport Huancayo1:2
- 30.08Sporting Cristal1:0
- 23.08Cienciano5:1
- 18.09Comerciantes Unidos2:1
- 13.09away · Atlético Grau1:3
- 04.09CD UT Cajamarca3:2
- 30.08away · Club Deportivo Moquegua4:1
- 21.08Sporting Cristal3:1
Head to head
- 19.04.2026Alianza Atlético — Sport Boys0:1
- 16.11.2025Sport Boys — Alianza Atlético0:1
- 12.07.2025Alianza Atlético — Sport Boys1:0
- 24.08.2024Alianza Atlético — Sport Boys2:0
- 31.03.2024Sport Boys — Alianza Atlético0:0
Next matches
- ADC Juan Pablo IISport Boys17 October · Peruvian Liga 14528271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.5
- Alianza AtléticoUniversitario de Deportes18 October · Peruvian Liga 13829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 5425211The most likely outcome did not happen: 12:2Final score 2:2. Model's score: 2:0.2.6
- 2125552The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:3.3.2
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →