Liga MX (Mexico), round 12 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Tijuana — Puebla
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Tijuana are clear favourites: 58% against 18% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.9).
Over 2.5 goals — 55%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Tijuana are about 0.6 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tijuana — Puebla What is xG? | 1.9–1.0 | |
| Tijuana not to lose | 82% | |
| Puebla not to lose | 42% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 55% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 45% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Tijuana
- Tijuana goals
- Puebla goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
Head to head
- 07.02.2026Tijuana — Puebla0:0
- 18.10.2025Puebla — Tijuana4:3
- 22.02.2025Puebla — Tijuana2:0
- 11.11.2024Tijuana — Puebla2:1
- 20.04.2024Tijuana — Puebla3:1
Table
Liga MX on the same day
- 4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- 4228311The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →