J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Ajinomoto Stadium
Tokyo Verdy — Sanfrecce Hiroshima
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
0:2Came true
In short
Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Sanfrecce Hiroshima to win (61%), came true.
Sanfrecce Hiroshima are clear favourites: 61% against 14% for the opponent, draw 25%.
The model expects few goals: 2.3 in total, against a competition average of 2.6.
Over 2.5 goals — 40%, both teams to score — 40%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Sanfrecce Hiroshima are about 1.1 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Tokyo Verdy — Sanfrecce Hiroshima What is xG? | 0.7–1.6 | |
| Tokyo Verdy not to lose | 39% | |
| Sanfrecce Hiroshima not to lose | 86% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 40% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 60% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 40% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 60% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Tokyo Verdy
- Tokyo Verdy goals
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima goals
- Corners and cards
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Form
- 19.09away · Urawa Red Diamonds1:3
- 13.09JEF United Chiba1:1
- 06.09away · Cerezo Osaka0:0
- 02.09Vissel Kobe0:2
- 29.08Kashima Antlers0:2
- 19.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 12.09Cerezo Osaka6:1
- 06.09away · Fagiano Okayama FC2:3
- 02.09Nagoya Grampus3:0
- 29.08away · Gamba Osaka0:0
Head to head
- 23.08.2025Tokyo Verdy — Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:3
- 17.05.2025Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Tokyo Verdy2:1
- 07.08.2024Tokyo Verdy — Sanfrecce Hiroshima0:1
- 15.06.2024Sanfrecce Hiroshima — Tokyo Verdy4:1
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kashiwa Reysol | 9 | 7 | +7 | 21 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 9 | 6 | +16 | 20 |
| 3 | Machida Zelvia | 9 | 6 | +12 | 20 |
| 19, Relegation | JEF United Chiba | 9 | 1 | -11 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Tokyo Verdy | 9 | 0 | -10 | 4 |
Next matches
- Tokyo VerdyFC Tokyo17 October · J1 League2228502The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:22.2
- Sanfrecce HiroshimaKyoto Sanga FC17 October · J1 League7218101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.0
J1 League on the same day
- 3528372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 353036XThe most likely outcome did not happen: X1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:1.2.4
- 4627271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 61% will not happen in roughly 39 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →