J1 League (Japan), round 9 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Kasamatsu Stadium
Mito Hollyhock — Shimizu S-Pulse
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 1:2: the model's most likely outcome, a draw (30%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 30% fails in about 70 matches out of 100 on average.
Evenly matched: Mito Hollyhock 35%, Shimizu S-Pulse 36%, draw 30%.
2.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 43%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Mito Hollyhock — Shimizu S-Pulse What is xG? | 1.2–1.2 | |
| Mito Hollyhock not to lose | 64% | |
| Shimizu S-Pulse not to lose | 65% | |
| No draw | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 43% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 57% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Mito Hollyhock
- Mito Hollyhock goals
- Shimizu S-Pulse goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 19.09away · Yokohama F.Marinos0:2
- 12.09Kawasaki Frontale0:1
- 05.09away · Avispa Fukuoka1:1
- 02.09Kashima Antlers4:2
- 29.08Machida Zelvia1:1
- 19.09JEF United Chiba2:1
- 12.09Avispa Fukuoka1:0
- 06.09away · Kawasaki Frontale1:3
- 02.09FC Tokyo1:1
- 29.08Kashiwa Reysol0:1
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Fagiano Okayama FC | 9 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
Next matches
- Shimizu S-PulseGamba Osaka17 October · J1 League3729341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.8
- Mito HollyhockUrawa Red Diamonds17 October · J1 League2928422The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:22.5
J1 League on the same day
- 3528372The most likely outcome did not happen: 21:1Final score 1:1. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
- 1425612The most likely outcome came true: 20:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.2.3
- 4627271The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 1:0.3.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 36% will not happen in roughly 64 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →