Bundesliga, round 8 · Sunday, 1 November, 17:30 MSK

Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln

Model prediction for 1 November

Union Berlin40%

Draw29%

1. FC Köln30%

Model estimate at 12:55 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Union Berlin are slightly stronger: 40% against 30%, draw 29%.

The model expects few goals: 2.9 in total, against a competition average of 3.3.

Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 62%.

Why

By the strength ratings Union Berlin are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.

Facts

League table: Union Berlin — No. 16, 4 pts; 1. FC Köln — No. 10, 7 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Union Berlin 2 wins, 1. FC Köln 1, 2 draws.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln What is xG?		1.6–1.4
Union Berlin not to lose		70%
1. FC Köln not to lose		60%
No draw		71%
Both teams to score: yes		62%
Both teams to score: no		38%
Total over 2.5		56%
Total under 2.5		44%

183 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Handicap Union Berlin
Union Berlin goals
1. FC Köln goals
Corners and cards
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Union Berlin

10.10Elversberg1:0
18.09away · Bayern München0:7
11.09Schalke 041:3
05.09away · Bayer Leverkusen0:4
29.08Eintracht Frankfurt3:3

1. FC Köln

11.10Borussia Mönchengladbach2:1
19.09away · Hamburger SV1:2
12.09Werder Bremen1:1
04.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:4
29.08Hoffenheim3:2

Head to head

02.05.2026Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln2:2
20.12.20251. FC Köln — Union Berlin0:1
11.05.20241. FC Köln — Union Berlin3:2
20.12.2023Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln2:0
04.03.2023Union Berlin — 1. FC Köln0:0

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9	Elversberg	5	2	1	2	8–8	0	7
10	1. FC Köln	5	2	1	2	8–10	-2	7
11	VfB Stuttgart	5	2	0	3	8–9	-1	6
15	Paderborn	5	1	1	3	3–7	-4	4
16, Relegation play-off	Union Berlin	5	1	1	3	5–17	-12	4
17, Relegation	Hoffenheim	5	1	0	4	9–13	-4	3

Season 2026/27

Full table

Bundesliga on the same day

19:30
Eintracht FrankfurtHamburger SVpreliminary
602317
1The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →