Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Banco Guayaquil
Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará
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In short
Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Universidad Católica (ECU) to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.
Universidad Católica (ECU) are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Universidad Católica (ECU) are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Universidad Católica (ECU) not to lose | 77% | |
| CSD Macará not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 74% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Universidad Católica (ECU)
- Universidad Católica (ECU) goals
- CSD Macará goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 21.09away · LDU de Quito1:2
- 15.09Orense2:1
- 07.09away · Delfín1:0
- 03.09Aucas1:1
- 29.08away · Independiente del Valle2:2
- 19.09away · Aucas2:1
- 13.09Emelec1:0
- 06.09away · Independiente del Valle1:3
- 02.09Manta4:3
- 30.08away · Orense2:1
Head to head
- 18.08.2026CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
- 24.04.2026Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará4:0
- 27.07.2025CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:4
- 06.04.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará1:0
- 30.11.2024CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:2
Next matches
- CSD MacaráIndependiente del Valle17 October · LigaPro Serie A2528472The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.0
- Barcelona SCUniversidad Católica (ECU)19 October · LigaPro Serie A3929321The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.4
LigaPro Serie A on the same day
- 4429271The most likely outcome came true: 13:2Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
- 4329281The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:0Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →