Ecuadorian LigaPro Serie A, playoff · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Banco Guayaquil

Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará

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Model prediction and result

0:1Missed
Universidad Católica (ECU)51%
Draw26%
CSD Macará23%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:1: the model's most likely outcome, Universidad Católica (ECU) to win (51%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Universidad Católica (ECU) are clear favourites: 51% against 23% for the opponent, draw 26%.

The model expects plenty of goals: 2.8 in total, against a competition average of 2.4.

Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.

Why

  • By the strength ratings Universidad Católica (ECU) are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará What is xG?1.7–1.1
Universidad Católica (ECU) not to lose77%
CSD Macará not to lose49%
No draw74%
Both teams to score: yes56%
Both teams to score: no44%
Total over 2.553%
Total under 2.547%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Handicap Universidad Católica (ECU)
  • Universidad Católica (ECU) goals
  • CSD Macará goals
  • Corners and cards
  • Full score grid
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Form

Universidad Católica (ECU)

  • 21.09away · LDU de Quito1:2
  • 15.09Orense2:1
  • 07.09away · Delfín1:0
  • 03.09Aucas1:1
  • 29.08away · Independiente del Valle2:2

CSD Macará

  • 19.09away · Aucas2:1
  • 13.09Emelec1:0
  • 06.09away · Independiente del Valle1:3
  • 02.09Manta4:3
  • 30.08away · Orense2:1

Head to head

  • 18.08.2026CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:1
  • 24.04.2026Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará4:0
  • 27.07.2025CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:4
  • 06.04.2025Universidad Católica (ECU) — CSD Macará1:0
  • 30.11.2024CSD Macará — Universidad Católica (ECU)1:2

Next matches

LigaPro Serie A on the same day

  • 1The most likely outcome came true: 1Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.2.2
  • 1The most likely outcome did not happen: 1Final score 0:0. Model's score: 2:1.2.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →