Peruvian Liga 1 · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Estadio Monumental U Marathon
Universitario de Deportes — FBC Melgar
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In short
Final score 2:2: the model's most likely outcome, Universitario de Deportes to win (54%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.
Universitario de Deportes are clear favourites: 54% against 21% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.7).
Over 2.5 goals — 48%, both teams to score — 51%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Universitario de Deportes are about 0.5 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Universitario de Deportes — FBC Melgar What is xG? | 1.6–0.9 | |
| Universitario de Deportes not to lose | 79% | |
| FBC Melgar not to lose | 46% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 51% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 49% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 48% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 52% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Universitario de Deportes
- Universitario de Deportes goals
- FBC Melgar goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 20.09away · Deportivo Garcilaso0:4
- 13.09away · Alianza Lima2:1
- 06.09Comerciantes Unidos2:2
- 29.08away · CD UT Cajamarca4:2
- 24.08Los Chankas3:0
- 20.09Sport Boys1:1
- 12.09away · Cusco FC1:0
- 07.09Asociación Deportiva Tarma3:0
- 01.09away · Atlético Grau0:1
- 23.08Alianza Lima1:1
Head to head
- 20.04.2026FBC Melgar — Universitario de Deportes2:1
- 14.09.2025FBC Melgar — Universitario de Deportes1:2
- 14.04.2025Universitario de Deportes — FBC Melgar4:1
- 01.08.2024FBC Melgar — Universitario de Deportes1:0
- 18.02.2024Universitario de Deportes — FBC Melgar2:0
Next matches
- FBC MelgarDeportivo Garcilaso18 October · Peruvian Liga 15326211The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.3
- Alianza AtléticoUniversitario de Deportes18 October · Peruvian Liga 13829331The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.6
Peruvian Liga 1 on the same day
- 2125552The most likely outcome came true: 20:1Final score 0:1. Model's score: 1:3.3.2
- 4130291The most likely outcome did not happen: 11:3Final score 1:3. Model's score: 1:0.2.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 54% will not happen in roughly 46 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →