J1 League (Japan), round 12 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Urawa Red Diamonds — V-Varen Nagasaki
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Urawa Red Diamonds are clear favourites: 52% against 22% for the opponent, draw 25%.
2.8 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.6).
Over 2.5 goals — 53%, both teams to score — 56%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Urawa Red Diamonds are about 0.4 goals per match stronger.
Facts
- League table: Urawa Red Diamonds — No. 11, 12 pts; V-Varen Nagasaki — No. 14, 9 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Urawa Red Diamonds — V-Varen Nagasaki What is xG? | 1.7–1.1 | |
| Urawa Red Diamonds not to lose | 78% | |
| V-Varen Nagasaki not to lose | 48% | |
| No draw | 75% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 56% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 44% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 53% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 47% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Urawa Red Diamonds
- Urawa Red Diamonds goals
- V-Varen Nagasaki goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 10.10away · FC Tokyo0:3
- 19.09Tokyo Verdy3:1
- 13.09Fagiano Okayama FC1:2
- 06.09away · Kashima Antlers1:0
- 02.09away · Avispa Fukuoka3:2
- 11.10away · JEF United Chiba1:1
- 19.09Cerezo Osaka1:1
- 12.09Nagoya Grampus2:0
- 06.09away · Vissel Kobe1:3
- 02.09Gamba Osaka2:2
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 9 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 11 | Urawa Red Diamonds | 9 | 4 | -5 | 12 |
| 12 | Cerezo Osaka | 9 | 3 | -5 | 12 |
| 13 | Mito Hollyhock | 9 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 9 | 2 | -5 | 9 |
| 15 | Nagoya Grampus | 9 | 3 | -6 | 9 |
J1 League on the same day
- Nagoya GrampusYokohama F.Marinospreliminary3828341The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
- Cerezo OsakaJEF United Chibapreliminary5525201The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:13.0
- FC TokyoMito Hollyhockpreliminary6920101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.7
- Kawasaki FrontaleFagiano Okayama FCpreliminary4428281The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 52% will not happen in roughly 48 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →