La Liga, round 9 · Saturday, 17 October, MSK
Valencia — Athletic Club
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 17 October
In short
Athletic Club are slightly stronger: 41% against 28%, draw 31%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 56%, both teams to score — 60%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Facts
- League table: Valencia — No. 19, 5 pts; Athletic Club — No. 10, 8 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
- Athletic Club: unbeaten in 4.
- Last 5 meetings: Valencia 2 wins, Athletic Club 3.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Valencia — Athletic Club What is xG? | 1.2–1.4 | |
| Valencia not to lose | 59% | |
| Athletic Club not to lose | 72% | |
| No draw | 69% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 60% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 40% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 56% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 44% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Racing Santander2:2
- 20.09Real Sociedad2:3
- 15.09away · Deportivo Alavés1:0
- 11.09away · Sevilla0:1
- 06.09Barcelona0:5
- 19.09Deportivo Alavés0:0
- 12.09Elche1:1
- 05.09Atlético Madrid3:0
- 30.08away · Celta Vigo2:0
- 27.08away · Barcelona0:2
Head to head
- 10.05.2026Athletic Club — Valencia0:1
- 04.02.2026Valencia — Athletic Club1:2
- 20.09.2025Valencia — Athletic Club2:0
- 18.05.2025Valencia — Athletic Club0:1
- 28.08.2024Athletic Club — Valencia1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 8 | 1 | +2 | 8 |
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 18, Relegation | Elche | 8 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 8 | 1 | -9 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Málaga | 8 | 0 | -9 | 4 |
La Liga on the same day
- 2227522The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- 7318101The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.3
- 1223662The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 1:23.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →