La Liga, round 10 · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Valencia — Villarreal
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Villarreal are slightly stronger: 39% against 32%, draw 29%.
2.7 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.8).
Over 2.5 goals — 50%, both teams to score — 57%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Villarreal are about 0.2 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Valencia — Villarreal What is xG? | 1.3–1.4 | |
| Valencia not to lose | 61% | |
| Villarreal not to lose | 68% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 57% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 43% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 50% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 50% |
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Form
- 11.10away · Racing Santander2:2
- 20.09Real Sociedad2:3
- 15.09away · Deportivo Alavés1:0
- 11.09away · Sevilla0:1
- 06.09Barcelona0:5
- 13.10Napoli3:1
- 10.10away · Real Madrid0:1
- 20.09Levante3:1
- 17.09away · Málaga3:1
- 14.09Real Betis1:2
Head to head
- 22.02.2026Villarreal — Valencia2:1
- 25.10.2025Valencia — Villarreal0:2
- 15.02.2025Villarreal — Valencia1:1
- 31.08.2024Valencia — Villarreal1:1
- 17.03.2024Villarreal — Valencia1:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | Athletic Club | 6 | 2 | +1 | 8 |
| 11 | Villarreal | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 12 | Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 18, Relegation | Elche | 8 | 1 | -6 | 6 |
| 19, Relegation | Valencia | 8 | 1 | -9 | 5 |
| 20, Relegation | Málaga | 8 | 0 | -9 | 4 |
La Liga on the same day
- Rayo VallecanoElchepreliminary5725171The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:12.7
- Racing SantanderEspanyolpreliminary4328291The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:03.2
- Atlético MadridDeportivo A Coruñapreliminary751781The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →