Argentine Liga Profesional · Sunday, 1 November, MSK
Vélez Sarsfield — San Lorenzo
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 1 November
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Vélez Sarsfield are clear favourites: 51% against 19% for the opponent, draw 29%.
2.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (2.1).
Over 2.5 goals — 32%, both teams to score — 39%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Vélez Sarsfield are about 0.3 goals per match stronger.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Vélez Sarsfield — San Lorenzo What is xG? | 1.3–0.7 | |
| Vélez Sarsfield not to lose | 81% | |
| San Lorenzo not to lose | 49% | |
| No draw | 71% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 39% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 61% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 32% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 68% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
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- Handicap Vélez Sarsfield
- Vélez Sarsfield goals
- San Lorenzo goals
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Form
- 12.10away · Lanús0:2
- 06.10Club Atlético Platense2:2
- 21.09Tigre3:2
- 11.09away · Newell's Old Boys1:1
- 06.09Estudiantes1:0
- 11.10Deportivo Riestra1:0
- 03.10away · Defensa y Justicia0:3
- 20.09Boca Juniors0:2
- 14.09away · Independiente1:1
- 06.09Talleres1:0
Head to head
- 21.04.2026San Lorenzo — Vélez Sarsfield0:0
- 08.08.2025San Lorenzo — Vélez Sarsfield1:0
- 09.02.2025Vélez Sarsfield — San Lorenzo0:0
- 14.09.2024San Lorenzo — Vélez Sarsfield0:1
- 07.08.2024San Lorenzo — Vélez Sarsfield1:3
Liga Profesional on the same day
- EstudiantesInstitutopreliminary4330271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.1
- Boca JuniorsRiver Platepreliminary5028221The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 1:02.3
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 51% will not happen in roughly 49 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →