2. Bundesliga, round 9 · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
VfL Osnabrück — Greuther Fürth
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Evenly matched: VfL Osnabrück 38%, Greuther Fürth 35%, draw 27%.
The model expects plenty of goals: 3.5 in total, against a competition average of 3.0.
Over 2.5 goals — 67%, both teams to score — 70%.
Why
- By the strength ratings the teams are almost level.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: VfL Osnabrück — Greuther Fürth What is xG? | 1.8–1.7 | |
| VfL Osnabrück not to lose | 65% | |
| Greuther Fürth not to lose | 62% | |
| No draw | 73% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 70% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 30% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 67% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 33% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap VfL Osnabrück
- VfL Osnabrück goals
- Greuther Fürth goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Dynamo Dresden1:1
- 19.09away · Holstein Kiel1:1
- 13.09Hertha BSC1:3
- 06.09Eintracht Braunschweig3:1
- 02.09Bayern München1:4
- 11.10away · Hertha BSC1:2
- 18.09Magdeburg1:1
- 12.09away · Bochum1:1
- 06.09FC Heidenheim0:1
- 29.08away · Energie Cottbus4:3
Head to head
- 07.04.2024VfL Osnabrück — Greuther Fürth2:0
- 27.10.2023Greuther Fürth — VfL Osnabrück4:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 | Arminia Bielefeld | 7 | 2 | -1 | 8 |
| 10 | VfL Osnabrück | 7 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 11 | Eintracht Braunschweig | 7 | 2 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Darmstadt | 7 | 2 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Greuther Fürth | 7 | 1 | -3 | 6 |
| 16, Relegation play-off | Dynamo Dresden | 7 | 1 | -6 | 5 |
2. Bundesliga on the same day
- Eintracht BraunschweigHannover 96preliminary2828452The model's most likely outcome: 2Model's score: 0:13.0
- Holstein KielDynamo Dresdenpreliminary4627271The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 2:02.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →