UEFA Champions League, round 2 · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK · Lyse Arena
Viking — Bayern München
☆ Save matchModel prediction and result
In short
Final score 3:3: the model's most likely outcome, Bayern München to win (69%), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 69% fails in about 31 matches out of 100 on average.
Bayern München are clear favourites: 69% against 12% for the opponent, draw 19%.
The model expects few goals: 3.1 in total, against a competition average of 3.5.
Over 2.5 goals — 60%, both teams to score — 52%.
Why
- By the strength ratings Bayern München are about 1.4 goals per match stronger.
- Bayern München: only 3 days of rest since the previous match.
Facts
- Viking: 3 wins in a row; Bayern München: unbeaten in 5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Viking — Bayern München What is xG? | 0.8–2.3 | |
| Viking not to lose | 31% | |
| Bayern München not to lose | 88% | |
| No draw | 81% | |
| Both teams to score: yes | 52% | |
| Both teams to score: no | 48% | |
| Total over 2.5 | 60% | |
| Total under 2.5 | 40% |
183 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, corners and cards, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Handicap Viking
- Viking goals
- Bayern München goals
- Corners and cards
- Full score grid
Form
- 09.10away · Brann2:0
- 20.09Lillestrøm3:0
- 13.09Kristiansund8:1
- 09.09away · VfB Stuttgart1:3
- 04.09away · Sandefjord1:1
- 10.10away · Augsburg2:2
- 18.09Union Berlin7:0
- 13.09away · Elversberg2:1
- 10.09Bodø/Glimt5:0
- 05.09away · Schalke 040:0
Head to head
No previous meetings in the data.
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Straight to the round of 16 | Arsenal | 2 | 2 | +4 | 6 |
| 4, Straight to the round of 16 | Bayern München | 2 | 1 | +5 | 4 |
| 5, Straight to the round of 16 | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 1 | +5 | 3 |
| 25 | PSV Eindhoven | 2 | 0 | -1 | 1 |
| 26 | Viking | 2 | 0 | -2 | 1 |
| 27 | LASK | 1 | 0 | -1 | 0 |
Next matches
- VikingFredrikstad17 October · Eliteserien761681The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:03.2
- Bayern MünchenRB Leipzig17 October · Bundesliga831251The model's most likely outcome: 1Model's score: 3:14.3
Champions League on the same day
- 4226321The most likely outcome did not happen: 10:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 3627372The most likely outcome did not happen: 22:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.2.8
- 6222171The most likely outcome did not happen: 13:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 3:1.3.0
- 801471The most likely outcome came true: 13:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 3:0, exactly right.3.4
- 5125241The most likely outcome came true: 12:0Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 3927351The most likely outcome came true: 11:0Final score 1:0. Model's score: 2:0.2.8
- 4027341The most likely outcome came true: 13:1Final score 3:1. Model's score: 1:0.2.8
- 2425512The most likely outcome came true: 21:4Final score 1:4. Model's score: 0:2.2.8
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 69% will not happen in roughly 31 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →