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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Monday, 12 October, MSK · Aktobe Sports Palace

Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Aktobe30%
Draw in regulation21%
Beibarys Atyrau49%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Beibarys Atyrau to win (61% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 61% fails in about 39 matches out of 100 on average.

Beibarys Atyrau are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.6 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 54%.

Why

  • Beibarys Atyrau are more dangerous in attack: 3.1 expected goals against 2.5.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Aktobe 1 win, Beibarys Atyrau 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau2.5–3.1
Aktobe to win (incl. OT and shootout)39%
Beibarys Atyrau to win (incl. OT and shootout)61%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)54%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)46%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Aktobe
  • Aktobe goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Aktobe

  • 08.10away · Pavlodar6:0
  • 07.10away · Pavlodar5:2
  • 03.10away · Gornyak Rudny1:7
  • 02.10away · Gornyak Rudny1:3
  • 28.09Torpedo2:6

Beibarys Atyrau

  • 07.10Almaty5:3
  • 06.10Almaty1:4
  • 02.10Torpedo2:9
  • 01.10Torpedo3:4
  • 28.09away · Gornyak Rudny1:5

Head to head

  • 26.01.2026Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau5:6 OT
  • 25.01.2026Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau3:6
  • 01.12.2025Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau4:7
  • 30.11.2025Aktobe — Beibarys Atyrau2:6
  • 28.10.2025Beibarys Atyrau — Aktobe1:5

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, PlayoffsAlmaty1890949–57-818
8, PlayoffsAktobe18411345–83-389
9Beibarys Atyrau18321338–59-218
10Pavlodar18011719–140-1211

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next match

  • AktobeBeibarys Atyrau13 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:4.5.5

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • TorpedoPavlodar
    1The most likely outcome came true: 10%Final score 8:0. Model's score: 12:1.10.2
  • AlmatyGornyak Rudny
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 220%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 2:4.5.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →