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Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · Halyk Arena

Almaty — Gornyak Rudny

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Model prediction and result

0:3Came true
Almaty27%
Draw in regulation20%
Gornyak Rudny53%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Gornyak Rudny to win (65% incl. overtime), came true.

Gornyak Rudny are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.7 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 55%.

Why

  • Gornyak Rudny are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Almaty — Gornyak Rudny2.4–3.3
Almaty to win (incl. OT and shootout)35%
Gornyak Rudny to win (incl. OT and shootout)65%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)55%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)45%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Almaty
  • Almaty goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Almaty

  • 07.10away · Beibarys Atyrau3:5
  • 06.10away · Beibarys Atyrau4:1
  • 03.10away · Kokshetau2:3
  • 02.10away · Kokshetau2:1
  • 28.09Kulager1:2

Gornyak Rudny

  • 07.10Karaganda1:4
  • 06.10Karaganda5:3
  • 03.10Aktobe7:1
  • 02.10Aktobe3:1
  • 28.09Beibarys Atyrau5:1

Head to head

  • 25.01.2026Gornyak Rudny — Almaty7:3
  • 24.01.2026Gornyak Rudny — Almaty5:2
  • 15.12.2025Gornyak Rudny — Almaty4:3 OT
  • 14.12.2025Gornyak Rudny — Almaty4:5 OT
  • 09.09.2025Almaty — Gornyak Rudny1:4

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
3, PlayoffsKokshetau18131464–43+2127
4, PlayoffsGornyak Rudny18121571–44+2725
5, PlayoffsKaraganda18112573–44+2924
6, PlayoffsKulager1894564–52+1222
7, PlayoffsAlmaty1890949–57-818
8, PlayoffsAktobe18411345–83-389

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next match

  • AlmatyGornyak Rudny12 October · Kazakhstan Championship
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 220%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 2:4.5.5

Kazakhstan Championship on the same day

  • KokshetauNomad Astana
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 2:4. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • KulagerKaraganda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 2:1 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:4.5.6
  • TorpedoPavlodar
    1The most likely outcome came true: 10%Final score 13:0. Model's score: 12:1.10.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →