Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 24 October, MSK
Ambri-Piotta — Ajoie
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 24 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Ambri-Piotta are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.4 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 50%.
Why
- Ambri-Piotta are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.2.
Facts
- League table: Ambri-Piotta — No. 8, 15 pts; Ajoie — No. 5, 16 pts. A gap of 1 pt.
- Last 5 meetings: Ambri-Piotta 5 wins, Ajoie 0.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Ambri-Piotta — Ajoie | 3.2–2.2 | |
| Ambri-Piotta to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 68% | |
| Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 32% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 50% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 50% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Ambri-Piotta
- Ambri-Piotta goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 10.10Bern1:2 OT
- 03.10away · Fribourg2:1
- 01.10Langnau Tigers1:5
- 29.09Davos0:3
- 26.09away · Lugano5:3
- 10.10Langnau Tigers5:4 OT
- 08.10away · Fribourg2:7
- 04.10Lugano5:4
- 02.10away · Davos1:3
- 29.09Lausanne3:0
Head to head
- 15.09.2026Ajoie — Ambri-Piotta2:3 SO
- 31.03.2026Ajoie — Ambri-Piotta0:3
- 28.03.2026Ambri-Piotta — Ajoie3:2
- 24.03.2026Ajoie — Ambri-Piotta3:6
- 21.03.2026Ambri-Piotta — Ajoie5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Fribourg | 11 | 4 | +9 | 18 |
| 5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Ajoie | 11 | 2 | -3 | 16 |
| 6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals | Lugano | 10 | 4 | +3 | 15 |
| 7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Lausanne | 11 | 4 | -4 | 15 |
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Ambri-Piotta | 10 | 4 | -6 | 15 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Bern | 9 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
National League on the same day
- BielZugpreliminary53471The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
- EHC KlotenRapperswil-Jonapreliminary51491The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.9
- Langnau TigersDavospreliminary50501The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3
- LausanneFribourgpreliminary54461The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →