Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 24 October, 20:45 MSK

Biel — Zug

Model prediction for 24 October

Biel41%

Draw in regulation22%

Zug37%

Model estimate at 23:15 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Biel 53%, Zug 47% including overtime.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 46%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.7 and 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Biel — Zug		2.6–2.5
Biel to win (incl. OT and shootout)		53%
Zug to win (incl. OT and shootout)		47%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		46%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		54%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Biel
Biel goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Biel

10.10Lugano2:3
09.10away · Bern2:4
03.10Davos4:3
02.10away · Lausanne4:7
29.09away · Zurich3:6

Zug

11.10away · EHC Kloten3:1
04.10away · Servette1:2
29.09away · Rapperswil-Jona5:2
25.09away · Langnau Tigers3:5
22.09away · Lugano2:3 OT

Head to head

27.02.2026Biel — Zug2:3
19.12.2025Zug — Biel4:0
19.10.2025Zug — Biel4:3
30.09.2025Biel — Zug2:0
21.02.2025Biel — Zug6:2

Full record: 12 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Bern	9	3	1	3	2	27–26	+1	14
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Zug	7	4	0	1	2	25–15	+10	13
11	Davos	11	4	0	1	6	27–31	-4	13
12	Rapperswil-Jona	11	2	2	1	6	28–42	-14	11
13, Relegation play-off	Biel	10	3	0	1	6	31–35	-4	10
14, Relegation play-off	EHC Kloten	11	2	1	1	7	23–40	-17	9

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

20:45
Ambri-PiottaAjoiepreliminary
6832
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
20:45
EHC KlotenRapperswil-Jonapreliminary
5149
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.9
20:45
Langnau TigersDavospreliminary
5050
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3
20:45
LausanneFribourgpreliminary
5446
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.0

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →