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KHL · Monday, 5 October, MSK · Tatneft Arena

Bars Kazan — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

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Model prediction and result

0:2Came true
Bars Kazan36%
Draw in regulation25%
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl40%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:2: the model's most likely outcome, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (53% incl. overtime), came true.

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl are favourites: 53% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 3.9 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 23%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 1.9 and 2.0.

Facts

  • Last 5 meetings: Bars Kazan 2 wins, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Bars Kazan — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1.9–2.0
Bars Kazan to win (incl. OT and shootout)47%
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout)53%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)23%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)77%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Bars Kazan
  • Bars Kazan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Bars Kazan

  • 02.10Tractor Chelyabinsk2:3
  • 30.09Barys Astana4:1
  • 26.09away · Magnitogorsk1:2
  • 24.09away · Novosibirsk3:2 SO
  • 21.09Lada3:2 OT

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

  • 03.10away · Dinamo Minsk3:4
  • 30.09Novosibirsk3:1
  • 27.09away · Novosibirsk2:1
  • 25.09away · Khabarovsk1:3
  • 23.09away · Vladivostok2:1

Head to head

  • 21.05.2026Bars Kazan — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:3
  • 19.05.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Bars Kazan4:1
  • 17.05.2026Bars Kazan — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:1
  • 15.05.2026Bars Kazan — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:4
  • 13.05.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Bars Kazan1:5

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416
14, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBars Kazan1571734–35-115
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1362534–32+214

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Bars KazanCherepovets10 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • Lokomotiv YaroslavlDinamo Minsk10 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 6:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2

KHL on the same day

  • MagnitogorskVladivostok
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 2:5. Model's score: 4:1.5.3
  • LadaShanghai
    2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 0:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • CSKA MoscowSalavat Ufa
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • Dinamo MinskNizhny Novgorod
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →