Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 10 October, 20:45 MSK · Tissot Arena

Biel — Lugano

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Model prediction and result

2:3Missed

Biel43%

Draw in regulation21%

Lugano36%

Model estimate at 20:04 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Biel to win (54% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 54% fails in about 46 matches out of 100 on average.

Biel are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.8 and 2.6.
Biel: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Biel — Lugano		2.8–2.6
Biel to win (incl. OT and shootout)		54%
Lugano to win (incl. OT and shootout)		46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		51%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Biel
Biel goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Biel

09.10away · Bern2:4
03.10Davos4:3
02.10away · Lausanne4:7
29.09away · Zurich3:6
27.09Servette0:2

Lugano

09.10Zurich2:3 OT
07.10away · Lausanne5:2
04.10away · Ajoie4:5
02.10Rapperswil-Jona5:2
29.09away · Langnau Tigers3:4

Head to head

24.02.2026Lugano — Biel3:4 SO
02.01.2026Biel — Lugano3:1
15.11.2025Lugano — Biel6:0
16.09.2025Biel — Lugano3:2 OT
01.03.2025Lugano — Biel4:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15
12	Rapperswil-Jona	11	2	2	1	6	28–42	-14	11
13, Relegation play-off	Biel	10	3	0	1	6	31–35	-4	10
14, Relegation play-off	EHC Kloten	11	2	1	1	7	23–40	-17	9

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
BielAjoie16 October · National League
7129
1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 4:25.5
20:45
LuganoDavos16 October · National League
5347
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.1

National League on the same day

20:45
AjoieLangnau Tigers
3862
2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.2
20:45
Ambri-PiottaBern
5050
2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
20:45
Rapperswil-JonaLausanne
5149
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
20:45
ServetteDavos
5446
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:2, exactly right.5.2
20:45
ZurichFribourg
6139
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 43% will not happen in roughly 57 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →