Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 10 October, 20:45 MSK · Raiffeisen Arena

Ajoie — Langnau Tigers

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Model prediction and result

5:4 OTMissed

Ajoie30%

Draw in regulation21%

Langnau Tigers49%

Model estimate at 20:04 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:4 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Langnau Tigers to win (62% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 62% fails in about 38 matches out of 100 on average.

Langnau Tigers are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 47%.

Why

Langnau Tigers are more dangerous in attack: 2.9 expected goals against 2.3.
Langnau Tigers: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ajoie — Langnau Tigers		2.3–2.9
Ajoie to win (incl. OT and shootout)		38%
Langnau Tigers to win (incl. OT and shootout)		62%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		47%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		53%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Ajoie
Ajoie goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Ajoie

08.10away · Fribourg2:7
04.10Lugano5:4
02.10away · Davos1:3
29.09Lausanne3:0
26.09Rapperswil-Jona4:5 OT

Langnau Tigers

09.10Rapperswil-Jona3:0
03.10EHC Kloten6:2
01.10away · Ambri-Piotta5:1
29.09Lugano4:3
26.09away · Fribourg3:4 OT

Head to head

23.01.2026Langnau Tigers — Ajoie2:3 OT
14.01.2026Ajoie — Langnau Tigers2:1 SO
21.10.2025Ajoie — Langnau Tigers2:1
03.10.2025Langnau Tigers — Ajoie1:0
01.03.2025Langnau Tigers — Ajoie5:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Servette	11	5	2	2	2	33–29	+4	21
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	11	5	1	2	3	41–34	+7	19
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

20:45
LausanneAjoie14 October · National League
7723
1The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.4
20:45
ServetteLangnau Tigers16 October · National League
5941
1The model's most likely outcome: 121%Model's score: 3:25.3

National League on the same day

20:45
Ambri-PiottaBern
5050
2The most likely outcome came true: 222%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
20:45
BielLugano
5446
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
20:45
Rapperswil-JonaLausanne
5149
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
20:45
ServetteDavos
5446
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:2, exactly right.5.2
20:45
ZurichFribourg
6139
1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →