Premium
EN
Sections

Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Gottardo Arena

Ambri-Piotta — Bern

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

1:2 OTCame true
Ambri-Piotta39%
Draw in regulation22%
Bern39%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:2 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Bern to win (50% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Ambri-Piotta 50%, Bern 50% including overtime.

5.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.4).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 45%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.5 and 2.5.
  • Bern: second game in two days — the model lowers their attack and defence.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Ambri-Piotta — Bern2.5–2.5
Ambri-Piotta to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Bern to win (incl. OT and shootout)50%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)45%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)55%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Ambri-Piotta
  • Ambri-Piotta goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Ambri-Piotta

  • 03.10away · Fribourg2:1
  • 01.10Langnau Tigers1:5
  • 29.09Davos0:3
  • 26.09away · Lugano5:3
  • 25.09Zurich3:6

Bern

  • 09.10Biel4:2
  • 03.10away · Rapperswil-Jona3:4 OT
  • 02.10Servette2:3 SO
  • 29.09away · Fribourg2:5
  • 25.09Ajoie2:3 OT

Head to head

  • 07.03.2026Ambri-Piotta — Bern4:1
  • 09.01.2026Bern — Ambri-Piotta0:1 SO
  • 21.10.2025Ambri-Piotta — Bern0:5
  • 16.09.2025Bern — Ambri-Piotta3:1
  • 27.02.2025Ambri-Piotta — Bern4:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLausanne11411534–38-415
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsAmbri-Piotta10411426–32-615
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsBern9313227–26+114
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsZug7401225–15+1013

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • EHC KlotenAmbri-Piotta16 October · National League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:24.9
  • BernLausanne16 October · National League
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.8

National League on the same day

  • AjoieLangnau Tigers
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 221%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 2:4.5.2
  • BielLugano
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
  • Rapperswil-JonaLausanne
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:2.5.4
  • ServetteDavos
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 3:2, exactly right.5.2
  • ZurichFribourg
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 39% will not happen in roughly 61 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →