KHL · Thursday, 1 October, 19:30 MSK · Ice Palace

Cherepovets — Vladivostok

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

3:4 SOMissed

Cherepovets49%

Draw in regulation21%

Vladivostok29%

Model estimate at 17:50 MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:4 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Cherepovets to win (61% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 61% fails in about 39 matches out of 100 on average.

Cherepovets are favourites: 61% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.2).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 44%.

Why

Cherepovets are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

Cherepovets: 3 wins in a row; Vladivostok: 3 defeats in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Cherepovets 4 wins, Vladivostok 1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Cherepovets — Vladivostok		2.8–2.2
Cherepovets to win (incl. OT and shootout)		61%
Vladivostok to win (incl. OT and shootout)		39%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		44%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		56%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Cherepovets
Cherepovets goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Cherepovets

26.09Sochi3:1
24.09Yekaterinburg5:2
21.09away · Khabarovsk4:1
19.09away · Vladivostok0:2
14.09Dynamo Moscow0:2

Vladivostok

27.09Niznekamsk3:5
23.09Lokomotiv Yaroslavl1:2
21.09CSKA Moscow3:4 SO
19.09Cherepovets2:0
17.09Dynamo Moscow2:3

Head to head

19.09.2026Vladivostok — Cherepovets2:0
20.11.2025Cherepovets — Vladivostok3:2 OT
21.10.2025Vladivostok — Cherepovets1:4
20.11.2024Cherepovets — Vladivostok2:1
15.10.2024Vladivostok — Cherepovets5:6 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Lokomotiv Yaroslavl	14	11	0	3	38–23	+15	22
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Cherepovets	15	9	2	4	35–31	+4	20
5, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Nizhny Novgorod	14	9	1	4	40–25	+15	19
16	Dynamo Moscow	16	6	2	8	33–46	-13	14
17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conference	Vladivostok	14	5	3	6	35–39	-4	13
18	Novosibirsk	15	5	3	7	33–45	-12	13

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

17:00
CherepovetsShanghai3 October · KHL
6634
1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
17:00
SKA St. PetersburgVladivostok3 October · KHL
7030
1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 6:5 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4

KHL on the same day

19:30
Dinamo MinskCSKA Moscow
5842
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
19:30
Dynamo MoscowNizhny Novgorod
5842
1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:3. Model's score: 4:1.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 49% will not happen in roughly 51 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →