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KHL · Thursday, 1 October, MSK · Minsk-Arena

Dinamo Minsk — CSKA Moscow

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Model prediction and result

1:4Missed
Dinamo Minsk46%
Draw in regulation22%
CSKA Moscow31%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Dinamo Minsk to win (58% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.

Dinamo Minsk are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.8 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 38%.

Why

  • Dinamo Minsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.2.

Facts

  • CSKA Moscow: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Dinamo Minsk 3 wins, CSKA Moscow 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk — CSKA Moscow2.6–2.2
Dinamo Minsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
CSKA Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)38%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)62%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Dinamo Minsk
  • Dinamo Minsk goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Dinamo Minsk

  • 28.09Lada5:4
  • 26.09away · Shanghai1:2
  • 24.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:4 OT
  • 20.09Yekaterinburg5:3
  • 18.09Novosibirsk4:1

CSKA Moscow

  • 29.09SKA St. Petersburg6:5
  • 25.09away · Lada5:0
  • 23.09away · Khabarovsk2:0
  • 21.09away · Vladivostok4:3 SO
  • 18.09away · Nizhny Novgorod3:2

Head to head

  • 06.01.2026CSKA Moscow — Dinamo Minsk4:2
  • 20.11.2025Dinamo Minsk — CSKA Moscow5:2
  • 03.11.2025Dinamo Minsk — CSKA Moscow2:0
  • 20.10.2025CSKA Moscow — Dinamo Minsk5:3
  • 05.04.2025CSKA Moscow — Dinamo Minsk2:6

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
13, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • CSKA MoscowDynamo Moscow3 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • Dinamo MinskLokomotiv Yaroslavl3 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:1.4.3

KHL on the same day

  • CherepovetsVladivostok
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 3:4 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.0
  • Dynamo MoscowNizhny Novgorod
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 1:3. Model's score: 4:1.4.8

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →