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KHL · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · CSKA Arena

CSKA Moscow — Dynamo Moscow

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Model prediction and result

4:3 SOCame true
CSKA Moscow47%
Draw in regulation23%
Dynamo Moscow30%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, CSKA Moscow to win (59% incl. overtime), came true.

CSKA Moscow are favourites: 59% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.2 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 28%.

Why

  • CSKA Moscow are more dangerous in attack: 2.3 expected goals against 1.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: CSKA Moscow — Dynamo Moscow2.3–1.9
CSKA Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)59%
Dynamo Moscow to win (incl. OT and shootout)41%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)28%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)72%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap CSKA Moscow
  • CSKA Moscow goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

CSKA Moscow

  • 01.10away · Dinamo Minsk4:1
  • 29.09SKA St. Petersburg6:5
  • 25.09away · Lada5:0
  • 23.09away · Khabarovsk2:0
  • 21.09away · Vladivostok4:3 SO

Dynamo Moscow

  • 01.10Nizhny Novgorod1:3
  • 28.09Tractor Chelyabinsk1:2 OT
  • 26.09Salavat Ufa1:3
  • 24.09Dinamo Minsk4:3 OT
  • 22.09Barys Astana1:4

Head to head

  • 28.01.2026Dynamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow2:4
  • 30.12.2025CSKA Moscow — Dynamo Moscow5:1
  • 21.12.2025CSKA Moscow — Dynamo Moscow0:1 SO
  • 01.11.2025Dynamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow3:2
  • 10.10.2025Dynamo Moscow — CSKA Moscow4:3 SO

Full record: 71 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceMagnitogorsk16121351–30+2125
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
15, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceYekaterinburg1362534–32+214
16Dynamo Moscow1662833–46-1314
17, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceVladivostok1453635–39-413

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • CSKA MoscowSalavat Ufa5 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • Dynamo MoscowShanghai7 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.8

KHL on the same day

  • CherepovetsShanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • SKA St. PetersburgVladivostok
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 6:5 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
  • Dinamo MinskLokomotiv Yaroslavl
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
  • SochiNizhny Novgorod
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 0:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →