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KHL · Saturday, 3 October, MSK · Minsk-Arena

Dinamo Minsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

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Model prediction and result

4:3Came true
Dinamo Minsk41%
Draw in regulation23%
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl36%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Dinamo Minsk to win (52% incl. overtime), came true.

Close to a coin flip: Dinamo Minsk 52%, Lokomotiv Yaroslavl 48% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 5.2.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 31%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.2 and 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dinamo Minsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2.2–2.1
Dinamo Minsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)52%
Lokomotiv Yaroslavl to win (incl. OT and shootout)48%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)31%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)69%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

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  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Dinamo Minsk
  • Dinamo Minsk goals
  • Overtime chance
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Form

Dinamo Minsk

  • 01.10CSKA Moscow1:4
  • 28.09Lada5:4
  • 26.09away · Shanghai1:2
  • 24.09away · Dynamo Moscow3:4 OT
  • 20.09Yekaterinburg5:3

Lokomotiv Yaroslavl

  • 30.09Novosibirsk3:1
  • 27.09away · Novosibirsk2:1
  • 25.09away · Khabarovsk1:3
  • 23.09away · Vladivostok2:1
  • 20.09Barys Astana0:5

Head to head

  • 15.03.2026Dinamo Minsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl2:1 SO
  • 21.02.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Dinamo Minsk5:4 SO
  • 12.02.2026Dinamo Minsk — Lokomotiv Yaroslavl4:2
  • 21.01.2026Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Dinamo Minsk2:1
  • 16.12.2025Lokomotiv Yaroslavl — Dinamo Minsk3:2 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCSKA Moscow14110349–27+2222
3, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceLokomotiv Yaroslavl14110338–23+1522
4, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceCherepovets1592435–31+420
10, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceSalavat Ufa1581646–47-117
11, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceDinamo Minsk1565442–48-617
12, Playoffs: top 8 in each conferenceBarys Astana1480654–40+1416

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Dinamo MinskNizhny Novgorod5 October · KHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
  • Bars KazanLokomotiv Yaroslavl5 October · KHL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 225%Final score 0:2. Model's score: 1:2.3.9

KHL on the same day

  • CherepovetsShanghai
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 2:1 in overtime. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • CSKA MoscowDynamo Moscow
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • SKA St. PetersburgVladivostok
    1The most likely outcome came true: 119%Final score 6:5 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:1.5.4
  • SochiNizhny Novgorod
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 0:6. Model's score: 1:4.5.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 41% will not happen in roughly 59 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →