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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 26 October, MSK

Dinamo St. Petersburg — Kaluga

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Model prediction for 26 October

Dinamo St. Petersburg38%
Draw in regulation24%
Kaluga38%
Model estimate at MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Close to a coin flip: Dinamo St. Petersburg 49%, Kaluga 51% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.0 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 25%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Dinamo St. Petersburg — Kaluga2.0–2.0
Dinamo St. Petersburg to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Kaluga to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)25%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)75%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Dinamo St. Petersburg
  • Dinamo St. Petersburg goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Dinamo St. Petersburg

  • 12.10away · Almetyevsk2:3
  • 10.10away · CSK VVS5:3
  • 05.10away · SKA-VMF St. Petersburg0:3
  • 02.10away · Zvezda Moscow4:2
  • 30.09away · Khimik3:4 OT

Kaluga

  • 12.10Orsk1:2 SO
  • 07.10away · Perm3:1
  • 05.10away · Toros Neftekamsk1:0
  • 03.10away · Izhevsk3:1
  • 01.10away · Olympia3:2 OT

Head to head

No previous meetings in the data.

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, PlayoffsMetallurg Novokuznetsk1483327–16+1119
8, PlayoffsKaluga1383229–19+1019
9, PlayoffsKhimik1482446–28+1818
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314
20Dinamo St. Petersburg1361637–42-513
21HC Yugra1260620–18+212

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

  • PermKurganpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 2:14.3
  • Toros NeftekamskRubin Tyumenpreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.2
  • IzhevskHC Yugrapreliminary
    2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 1:34.0
  • SKA-VMF St. PetersburgAKMpreliminary
    1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →