VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Monday, 26 October, 17:00 MSK

Perm — Kurgan

Model prediction for 26 October

Perm47%

Draw in regulation23%

Kurgan29%

Model estimate at 09:18 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Perm are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.3 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 30%.

Why

Perm are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 1.9.

Facts

League table: Perm — No. 11, 16 pts; Kurgan — No. 26, 10 pts. A gap of 6 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Perm 3 wins, Kurgan 2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Perm — Kurgan		2.4–1.9
Perm to win (incl. OT and shootout)		60%
Kurgan to win (incl. OT and shootout)		40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		30%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		70%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Perm
Perm goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Perm

12.10away · HC Norilsk1:3
07.10Kaluga1:3
05.10AKM3:0
03.10Ryazan1:0
25.09away · Bars4:0

Kurgan

13.10Dizel4:3
11.10Tambov0:3
09.10Buran Voronezh2:3 SO
01.10Rubin Tyumen2:3 SO
29.09HC Yugra0:3

Head to head

22.12.2025Perm — Kurgan4:3
19.11.2025Kurgan — Perm3:2
02.03.2025Perm — Kurgan3:2
20.09.2024Kurgan — Perm1:3
12.02.2024Perm — Kurgan2:5

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
10, Playoffs	SKA-VMF St. Petersburg	12	8	0	4	32–21	+11	16
11, Playoffs	Perm	12	8	0	4	30–23	+7	16
12, Playoffs	Tambov	13	7	2	4	34–34	0	16
25	Zvezda Moscow	14	5	1	8	33–45	-12	11
26	Kurgan	12	3	4	5	19–33	-14	10
27	CSK VVS	16	4	1	11	31–56	-25	9

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

VHL on the same day

17:00
Toros NeftekamskRubin Tyumenpreliminary
4753
2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.2
17:30
IzhevskHC Yugrapreliminary
2674
2The model's most likely outcome: 221%Model's score: 1:34.0
19:00
Dinamo St. PetersburgKalugapreliminary
4951
2The model's most likely outcome: 224%Model's score: 1:24.0
19:00
SKA-VMF St. PetersburgAKMpreliminary
5842
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:14.6

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 47% will not happen in roughly 53 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →