AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · FirstOntario Centre
Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies
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In short
Final score 4:5 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Hamilton Hammers to win (50% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 50% fails in about 50 matches out of 100 on average.
Close to a coin flip: Hamilton Hammers 50%, Toronto Marlies 50% including overtime.
6.1 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 62%.
Why
- The teams are almost level on expected goals: 3.1 and 3.1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Hamilton Hammers — Toronto Marlies | 3.1–3.1 | |
| Hamilton Hammers to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Toronto Marlies to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 50% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 62% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 38% |
111 more model lines in Premium
All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Hamilton Hammers
- Hamilton Hammers goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
Form
- 03.10Hamilton Hammers5:3
- 03.10away · Rochester Americans1:3
- 20.06Chicago Wolves4:3
- 19.06Chicago Wolves3:4 OT
- 17.06Chicago Wolves1:0
Head to head
- 03.10.2026Toronto Marlies — Hamilton Hammers5:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts | P% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6 | Colorado Eagles | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 7 | Toronto Marlies | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 8 | Hershey Bears | 4 | 3 | +4 | 6 | .750 |
| 22 | Belleville Senators | 4 | 2 | -3 | 4 | .500 |
| 23 | Hamilton Hammers | 4 | 1 | -3 | 3 | .375 |
| 24 | Abbotsford Canucks | 4 | 1 | -4 | 3 | .375 |
Next match
- Hamilton HammersToronto Marlies11 October · AHL50502The most likely outcome came true: 220%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:4.6.5
AHL on the same day
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 121%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
- 66341The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%0:2Final score 0:2. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
- 45552The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%7:1Final score 7:1. Model's score: 2:3.5.3
- 51491The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%1:2Final score 1:2. Model's score: 3:2.5.5
- 43572The most likely outcome did not happen: 220%2:1Final score 2:1. Model's score: 2:4.6.2
- 64361The most likely outcome came true: 121%4:3SOFinal score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
- 61391The most likely outcome came true: 120%6:3Final score 6:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.9
- 56441The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%4:7Final score 4:7. Model's score: 4:2.6.1
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 40% will not happen in roughly 60 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →