AHL (American Hockey League) · Saturday, 10 October, MSK · Scotiabank Saddledome

Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors

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Model prediction and result

2:1Missed
Calgary Wranglers34%
Draw in regulation20%
Bakersfield Condors46%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Bakersfield Condors to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.

Bakersfield Condors are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

6.2 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.8).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 63%.

Why

  • Bakersfield Condors are more dangerous in attack: 3.3 expected goals against 2.9.

Facts

  • Calgary Wranglers: 4 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Calgary Wranglers 1 win, Bakersfield Condors 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors2.9–3.3
Calgary Wranglers to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Bakersfield Condors to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)63%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)37%

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Form

Calgary Wranglers

  • 04.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
  • 03.10Abbotsford Canucks4:2
  • 19.04away · Colorado Eagles7:5
  • 18.04away · Colorado Eagles5:2
  • 12.04Abbotsford Canucks0:4

Bakersfield Condors

  • 05.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:1
  • 04.10away · Henderson Silver Knights3:4
  • 27.04away · Coachella Valley Firebirds2:6
  • 26.04away · Coachella Valley Firebirds4:5
  • 24.04Coachella Valley Firebirds6:1

Head to head

  • 22.03.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers1:0
  • 21.02.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers4:5 OT
  • 04.02.2026Bakersfield Condors — Calgary Wranglers3:2 OT
  • 18.01.2026Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors0:1 OT
  • 17.01.2026Calgary Wranglers — Bakersfield Condors1:5

Full record: 22 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−PtsP%
4Laval Rocket430116–7+96.750
5Calgary Wranglers430114–10+46.750
6Colorado Eagles430114–10+46.750
19Tucson Roadrunners420214–12+24.500
20Bakersfield Condors420212–11+14.500
21Charlotte Checkers420211–12-14.500

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss, ranked by points percentage

Full table

Next match

AHL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →