Kazakhstan Hockey Championship · Sunday, 25 October, MSK
Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau
☆ Save matchModel prediction for 25 October
Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.
In short
Karaganda are clear favourites: 84% to win including overtime and shootout.
The model expects few goals: 5.7 in total, against a competition average of 6.1.
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 56%.
Why
- Karaganda are more dangerous in attack: 3.9 expected goals against 1.8.
Facts
- League table: Karaganda — No. 4, 26 pts; Beibarys Atyrau — No. 9, 8 pts. A gap of 18 pts.
- Last 5 meetings: Karaganda 4 wins, Beibarys Atyrau 1.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau | 3.9–1.8 | |
| Karaganda to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 84% | |
| Beibarys Atyrau to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 16% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 56% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 44% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Karaganda
- Karaganda goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 14.10away · Kokshetau4:1
- 11.10away · Kulager1:2 SO
- 10.10away · Kulager3:1
- 07.10away · Gornyak Rudny4:1
- 06.10away · Gornyak Rudny3:5
- 13.10away · Aktobe1:2
- 12.10away · Aktobe1:2
- 07.10Almaty5:3
- 06.10Almaty1:4
- 02.10Torpedo2:9
Head to head
- 02.09.2026Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau3:2 OT
- 01.09.2026Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau5:0
- 16.01.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Karaganda3:4 SO
- 15.01.2026Beibarys Atyrau — Karaganda4:2
- 24.12.2025Karaganda — Beibarys Atyrau8:0
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3, Playoffs | Kokshetau | 19 | 13 | +18 | 27 |
| 4, Playoffs | Karaganda | 19 | 12 | +32 | 26 |
| 5, Playoffs | Gornyak Rudny | 18 | 12 | +27 | 25 |
| 8, Playoffs | Aktobe | 18 | 4 | -38 | 9 |
| 9 | Beibarys Atyrau | 18 | 3 | -21 | 8 |
| 10 | Pavlodar | 18 | 0 | -121 | 1 |
Kazakhstan Championship on the same day
- Gornyak RudnyNomad Astanapreliminary38622The model's most likely outcome: 220%Model's score: 2:45.9
- KokshetauAlmatypreliminary78221The model's most likely outcome: 118%Model's score: 4:15.2
- TorpedoAktobepreliminary9551The model's most likely outcome: 17%Model's score: 5:26.6
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 73% will not happen in roughly 27 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →