DEL (German hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Lanxess Arena

Kolner — Schwenninger

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Model prediction and result

1:4Missed
Kolner53%
Draw in regulation20%
Schwenninger27%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Kolner to win (65% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 65% fails in about 35 matches out of 100 on average.

Kolner are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.

Why

  • Kolner are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.5.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kolner — Schwenninger3.4–2.5
Kolner to win (incl. OT and shootout)65%
Schwenninger to win (incl. OT and shootout)35%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)59%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)41%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kolner
  • Kolner goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kolner

  • 04.10away · ERC Ingolstadt6:3
  • 02.10Munchen2:4
  • 27.09away · Augsburger Panther6:4
  • 25.09Eisbaren Berlin5:6 SO
  • 20.09Frankfurt Lowen4:3 OT

Schwenninger

  • 04.10Straubing Tigers2:4
  • 02.10away · Nurnberg Ice Tigers0:5
  • 27.09away · Krefeld Pinguine2:5
  • 25.09away · Grizzly Wolfsburg4:3 OT
  • 20.09away · Augsburger Panther3:7

Head to head

  • 31.03.2026Kolner — Schwenninger2:1 OT
  • 29.03.2026Schwenninger — Kolner2:4
  • 27.03.2026Kolner — Schwenninger4:2
  • 25.03.2026Schwenninger — Kolner0:1
  • 23.01.2026Schwenninger — Kolner2:3

Full record: 17 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKrefeld Pinguine8400424–20+412
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKolner8311332–34-212
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsFrankfurt Lowen8211419–18+19
13Iserlohn Roosters8111517–34-176
14, RelegationSchwenninger8110618–34-165

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • KolnerNurnberg Ice Tigers11 October · DEL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.9
  • SchwenningerMunchen11 October · DEL
    2The most likely outcome came true: 221%Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:4.5.3

DEL on the same day

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →