DEL (German hockey league) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Lanxess Arena
Kolner — Schwenninger
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1:4Missed
In short
Final score 1:4: the model's most likely outcome, Kolner to win (65% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 65% fails in about 35 matches out of 100 on average.
Kolner are clear favourites: 65% to win including overtime and shootout.
5.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (6.0).
Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 59%.
Why
- Kolner are more dangerous in attack: 3.4 expected goals against 2.5.
Probabilities
| Expected goals: Kolner — Schwenninger | 3.4–2.5 | |
| Kolner to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 65% | |
| Schwenninger to win (incl. OT and shootout) | 35% | |
| Total over 5.5 (regulation) | 59% | |
| Total under 5.5 (regulation) | 41% |
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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.
- All totals
- Totals incl. OT
- Handicap Kolner
- Kolner goals
- Overtime chance
- Full score grid
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Form
- 04.10away · ERC Ingolstadt6:3
- 02.10Munchen2:4
- 27.09away · Augsburger Panther6:4
- 25.09Eisbaren Berlin5:6 SO
- 20.09Frankfurt Lowen4:3 OT
- 04.10Straubing Tigers2:4
- 02.10away · Nurnberg Ice Tigers0:5
- 27.09away · Krefeld Pinguine2:5
- 25.09away · Grizzly Wolfsburg4:3 OT
- 20.09away · Augsburger Panther3:7
Head to head
- 31.03.2026Kolner — Schwenninger2:1 OT
- 29.03.2026Schwenninger — Kolner2:4
- 27.03.2026Kolner — Schwenninger4:2
- 25.03.2026Schwenninger — Kolner0:1
- 23.01.2026Schwenninger — Kolner2:3
Table
| # | Team | P | W | +/− | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Krefeld Pinguine | 8 | 4 | +4 | 12 |
| 9, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Kolner | 8 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 10, Play-in round for the quarter-finals | Frankfurt Lowen | 8 | 2 | +1 | 9 |
| 13 | Iserlohn Roosters | 8 | 1 | -17 | 6 |
| 14, Relegation | Schwenninger | 8 | 1 | -16 | 5 |
Next matches
- KolnerNurnberg Ice Tigers11 October · DEL62381The most likely outcome came true: 120%4:2Final score 4:2. Model's score: 4:2, exactly right.5.9
- SchwenningerMunchen11 October · DEL39612The most likely outcome came true: 221%3:4Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:4.5.3
DEL on the same day
- 37632The most likely outcome did not happen: 220%3:0Final score 3:0. Model's score: 2:4.5.9
- 65351The most likely outcome came true: 120%5:0Final score 5:0. Model's score: 4:2.5.8
- 63371The most likely outcome did not happen: 120%1:5Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.9
- 45552The most likely outcome came true: 221%2:5Final score 2:5. Model's score: 2:3.5.5
- 70301The most likely outcome came true: 120%11:4Final score 11:4. Model's score: 4:2.5.4
This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 53% will not happen in roughly 47 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →