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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Friday, 9 October, MSK

Kurgan — Buran Voronezh

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Model prediction and result

2:3 SOMissed
Kurgan45%
Draw in regulation23%
Buran Voronezh32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3 SO: the model's most likely outcome, Kurgan to win (58% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.

Kurgan are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.3 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 31%.

Why

  • Kurgan are more dangerous in attack: 2.4 expected goals against 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kurgan — Buran Voronezh2.4–2.0
Kurgan to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Buran Voronezh to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)31%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)69%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kurgan
  • Kurgan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kurgan

  • 01.10Rubin Tyumen2:3 SO
  • 29.09HC Yugra0:3
  • 25.09away · Dyn. Altay3:2 OT
  • 23.09away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:4
  • 21.09away · Krasnoyarsk1:2 OT

Buran Voronezh

  • 07.10away · Omskie Krylia1:0
  • 01.10Dyn. Altay4:2
  • 29.09Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:1 SO
  • 27.09Krasnoyarsk4:3
  • 25.09HC Norilsk2:3

Head to head

  • 08.02.2026Kurgan — Buran Voronezh2:1
  • 09.10.2025Buran Voronezh — Kurgan2:1
  • 15.12.2024Buran Voronezh — Kurgan2:3 OT
  • 05.12.2024Kurgan — Buran Voronezh4:1
  • 02.12.2023Kurgan — Buran Voronezh4:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, PlayoffsAlmetyevsk15110444–30+1422
2, PlayoffsBuran Voronezh14102231–22+922
3, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410
27CSK VVS16411131–56-259

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • KurganTambov11 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.6
  • Rubin TyumenBuran Voronezh11 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.3

VHL on the same day

  • KrasnoyarskOlympia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
  • Omskie KryliaTambov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.9

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →