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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK

Kurgan — Tambov

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Model prediction and result

0:3Missed
Kurgan45%
Draw in regulation23%
Tambov32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 0:3: the model's most likely outcome, Kurgan to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.

Kurgan are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.6 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • Kurgan are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kurgan — Tambov2.5–2.1
Kurgan to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Tambov to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kurgan
  • Kurgan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kurgan

  • 09.10Buran Voronezh2:3 SO
  • 01.10Rubin Tyumen2:3 SO
  • 29.09HC Yugra0:3
  • 25.09away · Dyn. Altay3:2 OT
  • 23.09away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:4

Tambov

  • 09.10away · Omskie Krylia1:5
  • 03.10Dyn. Altay2:0
  • 01.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:0
  • 29.09Krasnoyarsk5:4
  • 27.09HC Norilsk4:1

Head to head

  • 12.02.2026Kurgan — Tambov2:1
  • 05.10.2025Tambov — Kurgan4:5 SO
  • 13.12.2024Tambov — Kurgan3:1
  • 03.12.2024Kurgan — Tambov2:3
  • 08.12.2023Kurgan — Tambov1:2 SO

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
11, PlayoffsPerm1280430–23+716
12, PlayoffsTambov1372434–34016
13, PlayoffsGornyak1071229–18+1115
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410
27CSK VVS16411131–56-259

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • KurganDizel13 October · VHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.1
  • Rubin TyumenTambov13 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.5

VHL on the same day

  • KrasnoyarskIzhevsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.5
  • Metallurg NovokuznetskOlympia
    1The most likely outcome came true: 116%Final score 2:0. Model's score: 4:1.4.8
  • Omskie KryliaDizel
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • Rubin TyumenBuran Voronezh
    1The most likely outcome came true: 123%Final score 4:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →