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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Friday, 9 October, MSK

Omskie Krylia — Tambov

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Model prediction and result

5:1Came true
Omskie Krylia50%
Draw in regulation22%
Tambov28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:1: the model's most likely outcome, Omskie Krylia to win (62% incl. overtime), came true.

Omskie Krylia are favourites: 62% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.9 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 41%.

Why

  • Omskie Krylia are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Omskie Krylia — Tambov2.8–2.1
Omskie Krylia to win (incl. OT and shootout)62%
Tambov to win (incl. OT and shootout)38%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)41%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)59%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Omskie Krylia
  • Omskie Krylia goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Omskie Krylia

  • 07.10Buran Voronezh0:1
  • 03.10Rubin Tyumen4:3
  • 01.10HC Yugra1:0
  • 27.09away · Dyn. Altay5:1
  • 25.09away · Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:1 OT

Tambov

  • 03.10Dyn. Altay2:0
  • 01.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:0
  • 29.09Krasnoyarsk5:4
  • 27.09HC Norilsk4:1
  • 21.09away · Kaluga0:6

Head to head

  • 10.02.2026Omskie Krylia — Tambov1:3
  • 03.10.2025Tambov — Omskie Krylia1:3
  • 15.12.2024Tambov — Omskie Krylia3:0
  • 05.12.2024Omskie Krylia — Tambov4:5 OT
  • 11.01.2024Omskie Krylia — Tambov4:2

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, PlayoffsBuran Voronezh14102231–22+922
3, PlayoffsOmskie Krylia13100337–19+1820
4, PlayoffsHC Norilsk1592435–33+220
11, PlayoffsPerm1280430–23+716
12, PlayoffsTambov1372434–34016
13, PlayoffsGornyak1071229–18+1115

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Omskie KryliaDizel11 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 124%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 2:1.4.2
  • KurganTambov11 October · VHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.6

VHL on the same day

  • KrasnoyarskOlympia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 3:4. Model's score: 2:1.4.3
  • KurganBuran Voronezh
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in a shootout. Model's score: 2:1.4.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →