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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK

Kurgan — Dizel

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Model prediction and result

4:3Missed
Kurgan38%
Draw in regulation24%
Dizel38%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:3: the model's most likely outcome, Dizel to win (51% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 51% fails in about 49 matches out of 100 on average.

Close to a coin flip: Kurgan 49%, Dizel 51% including overtime.

The model expects few goals: 4.1 in total, against a competition average of 4.7.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 26%.

Why

  • The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.0 and 2.0.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Kurgan — Dizel2.0–2.0
Kurgan to win (incl. OT and shootout)49%
Dizel to win (incl. OT and shootout)51%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)26%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)74%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Kurgan
  • Kurgan goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Kurgan

  • 11.10Tambov0:3
  • 09.10Buran Voronezh2:3 SO
  • 01.10Rubin Tyumen2:3 SO
  • 29.09HC Yugra0:3
  • 25.09away · Dyn. Altay3:2 OT

Dizel

  • 11.10away · Omskie Krylia2:3
  • 05.10Dyn. Altay3:1
  • 03.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk0:2
  • 01.10Krasnoyarsk2:0
  • 29.09HC Norilsk5:0

Head to head

  • 13.12.2025Kurgan — Dizel1:3
  • 01.12.2025Dizel — Kurgan1:0 SO
  • 24.01.2025Dizel — Kurgan2:1 SO
  • 30.10.2024Kurgan — Dizel3:1
  • 24.11.2023Dizel — Kurgan2:3 OT

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
21HC Yugra1260620–18+212
22Dizel1352629–31-212
23Dyn. Altay1252525–30-512
25Zvezda Moscow1451833–45-1211
26Kurgan1234519–33-1410
27CSK VVS16411131–56-259

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • KurganKristall Saratov15 October · VHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:14.9
  • Rubin TyumenDizel15 October · VHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.0

VHL on the same day

  • Dyn. AltayOlympia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:1.4.4
  • KrasnoyarskToros Neftekamsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • Metallurg NovokuznetskIzhevsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • Omskie KryliaKristall Saratov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 7:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.1
  • HC YugraBuran Voronezh
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 0:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.1
  • Rubin TyumenTambov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:2 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.5

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 38% will not happen in roughly 62 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →