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VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Tuesday, 13 October, MSK

Rubin Tyumen — Tambov

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Model prediction and result

3:2 OTCame true
Rubin Tyumen50%
Draw in regulation22%
Tambov28%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 3:2 OT: the model's most likely outcome, Rubin Tyumen to win (63% incl. overtime), came true.

Rubin Tyumen are clear favourites: 63% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • Rubin Tyumen are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 1.9.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Rubin Tyumen — Tambov2.6–1.9
Rubin Tyumen to win (incl. OT and shootout)63%
Tambov to win (incl. OT and shootout)37%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Rubin Tyumen
  • Rubin Tyumen goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Rubin Tyumen

  • 11.10Buran Voronezh4:3 SO
  • 03.10away · Omskie Krylia3:4
  • 01.10away · Kurgan3:2 SO
  • 27.09HC Yugra4:3
  • 23.09away · Dyn. Altay1:4

Tambov

  • 11.10away · Kurgan3:0
  • 09.10away · Omskie Krylia1:5
  • 03.10Dyn. Altay2:0
  • 01.10Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:0
  • 29.09Krasnoyarsk5:4

Head to head

  • 14.02.2026Rubin Tyumen — Tambov2:1
  • 07.10.2025Tambov — Rubin Tyumen5:4
  • 11.12.2024Tambov — Rubin Tyumen1:2
  • 01.12.2024Rubin Tyumen — Tambov3:2
  • 19.01.2024Tambov — Rubin Tyumen2:4

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
11, PlayoffsPerm1280430–23+716
12, PlayoffsTambov1372434–34016
13, PlayoffsGornyak1071229–18+1115
18Ryazan1554630–32-214
19Rubin Tyumen1270529–32-314
20Dinamo St. Petersburg1361637–42-513

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Rubin TyumenDizel15 October · VHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 124%Model's score: 2:14.0
  • HC YugraTambov15 October · VHL
    1The model's most likely outcome: 119%Model's score: 3:14.3

VHL on the same day

  • Dyn. AltayOlympia
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 1:4. Model's score: 3:1.4.4
  • KrasnoyarskToros Neftekamsk
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 2:0. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • Metallurg NovokuznetskIzhevsk
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:2 in a shootout. Model's score: 3:1.4.8
  • Omskie KryliaKristall Saratov
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 7:1. Model's score: 3:1.5.1
  • KurganDizel
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 224%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 1:2.4.1
  • HC YugraBuran Voronezh
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 119%Final score 0:1. Model's score: 3:1.4.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 50% will not happen in roughly 50 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →