Swiss National League (hockey) · Saturday, 24 October, 20:45 MSK

Lausanne — Fribourg

Model prediction for 24 October

Lausanne42%

Draw in regulation22%

Fribourg35%

Model estimate at 11:24 MSK

Preliminary forecast: the match is more than a week away. Closer to it the model takes in fresh form, injuries and line-ups, and the numbers may move.

In short

Lausanne are favourites: 54% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 5.0 in total, against a competition average of 5.4.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 42%.

Why

The teams are almost level on expected goals: 2.6 and 2.4.

Facts

League table: Lausanne — No. 7, 15 pts; Fribourg — No. 4, 18 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Last 5 meetings: Lausanne 2 wins, Fribourg 3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lausanne — Fribourg		2.6–2.4
Lausanne to win (incl. OT and shootout)		54%
Fribourg to win (incl. OT and shootout)		46%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		42%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		58%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Lausanne
Lausanne goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Lausanne

10.10away · Rapperswil-Jona4:1
07.10Lugano2:5
03.10away · Zurich2:3 OT
02.10Biel7:4
30.09Servette6:5 SO

Fribourg

10.10away · Zurich4:5 OT
08.10Ajoie7:2
03.10Ambri-Piotta1:2
02.10away · EHC Kloten4:1
29.09Bern5:2

Head to head

18.09.2026Fribourg — Lausanne4:2
07.03.2026Fribourg — Lausanne3:4
10.01.2026Lausanne — Fribourg0:4
21.11.2025Fribourg — Lausanne2:1
12.09.2025Lausanne — Fribourg5:1

Full record: 25 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTW	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Langnau Tigers	11	5	1	2	3	41–34	+7	19
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Fribourg	11	4	2	2	3	38–29	+9	18
5, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Ajoie	11	2	4	2	3	35–38	-3	16
6, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finals	Lugano	10	4	1	1	4	36–33	+3	15
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Lausanne	11	4	1	1	5	34–38	-4	15
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finals	Ambri-Piotta	10	4	1	1	4	26–32	-6	15

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

National League on the same day

20:45
Ambri-PiottaAjoiepreliminary
6832
1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 4:25.4
20:45
BielZugpreliminary
5347
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.2
20:45
EHC KlotenRapperswil-Jonapreliminary
5149
1The model's most likely outcome: 123%Model's score: 3:24.9
20:45
Langnau TigersDavospreliminary
5050
1The model's most likely outcome: 122%Model's score: 3:25.3

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 42% will not happen in roughly 58 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →