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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Home Credit Arena

Liberec — Karlovy Vary

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Model prediction and result

5:0Came true
Liberec48%
Draw in regulation22%
Karlovy Vary30%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 5:0: the model's most likely outcome, Liberec to win (60% incl. overtime), came true.

Liberec are favourites: 60% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 37%.

Why

  • Liberec are more dangerous in attack: 2.6 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Liberec — Karlovy Vary2.6–2.1
Liberec to win (incl. OT and shootout)60%
Karlovy Vary to win (incl. OT and shootout)40%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)37%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)63%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Liberec
  • Liberec goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Liberec

  • 04.10away · Mlada Boleslav5:3
  • 02.10Olomouc2:0
  • 29.09away · Litvinov4:5 SO
  • 27.09Trinec1:3
  • 24.09away · Mountfield HK2:5

Karlovy Vary

  • 04.10Plzen4:1
  • 02.10away · Vitkovice3:0
  • 28.09away · Sparta Prague1:0
  • 25.09Ceske Budejovice5:1
  • 20.09away · Pardubice2:5

Head to head

  • 31.03.2026Liberec — Karlovy Vary0:1 OT
  • 29.03.2026Karlovy Vary — Liberec4:0
  • 27.03.2026Liberec — Karlovy Vary3:1
  • 25.03.2026Karlovy Vary — Liberec1:4
  • 24.03.2026Karlovy Vary — Liberec0:3

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
4, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPlzen10331325–22+316
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsSparta Prague10402431–28+314
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Ceske BudejoviceLiberec11 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Karlovy VaryKladno11 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • TrinecMountfield HK
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
  • LitvinovOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:2.4.9
  • VitkovicePardubice
    2The most likely outcome came true: 220%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 2:4.5.5
  • KladnoMlada Boleslav
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 48% will not happen in roughly 52 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →