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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Friday, 9 October, MSK · Mustang Arena

Vitkovice — Pardubice

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Model prediction and result

2:3Came true
Vitkovice24%
Draw in regulation20%
Pardubice56%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Pardubice to win (68% incl. overtime), came true.

Pardubice are clear favourites: 68% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects plenty of goals: 5.5 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 51%.

Why

  • Pardubice are more dangerous in attack: 3.2 expected goals against 2.2.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Vitkovice — Pardubice2.2–3.2
Vitkovice to win (incl. OT and shootout)32%
Pardubice to win (incl. OT and shootout)68%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)51%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)49%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Vitkovice
  • Vitkovice goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Vitkovice

  • 04.10away · Mountfield HK2:3 OT
  • 02.10Karlovy Vary0:3
  • 29.09away · Olomouc4:3
  • 27.09Mlada Boleslav6:2
  • 25.09away · Trinec2:8

Pardubice

  • 04.10Sparta Prague6:4
  • 02.10Plzen4:2
  • 29.09Ceske Budejovice5:2
  • 27.09away · Kometa Brno5:3
  • 25.09away · Mlada Boleslav4:1

Head to head

  • 04.03.2026Vitkovice — Pardubice4:2
  • 04.01.2026Pardubice — Vitkovice4:1
  • 23.11.2025Vitkovice — Pardubice3:2
  • 05.10.2025Pardubice — Vitkovice3:4
  • 12.02.2025Vitkovice — Pardubice3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsTrinec10901049–23+2628
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsPardubice11810247–31+1626
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsKarlovy Vary9600322–16+618
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMlada Boleslav10211623–36-139
13Vitkovice9201621–32-117
14, Relegation play-offOlomouc10110818–36-185

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • Sparta PragueVitkovice11 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • PardubiceTrinec11 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 4:2.5.1

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • TrinecMountfield HK
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:2. Model's score: 3:1.4.9
  • LitvinovOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 4:2.4.9
  • KladnoMlada Boleslav
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • LiberecKarlovy Vary
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 5:0. Model's score: 3:1.4.7

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 56% will not happen in roughly 44 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →