PremiumTelegram
EN
Sections

SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · Coop Norrbotten Arena

Lulea — Malmo

☆ Save match

Model prediction and result

2:3Missed
Lulea46%
Draw in regulation22%
Malmo32%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:3: the model's most likely outcome, Lulea to win (58% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 58% fails in about 42 matches out of 100 on average.

Lulea are favourites: 58% to win including overtime and shootout.

5.0 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (5.3).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 43%.

Why

  • Lulea are more dangerous in attack: 2.7 expected goals against 2.3.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Lulea — Malmo2.7–2.3
Lulea to win (incl. OT and shootout)58%
Malmo to win (incl. OT and shootout)42%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)43%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)57%

111 more model lines in Premium

All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Lulea
  • Lulea goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
Get Premiumfrom $5.99 a month

Form

Lulea

  • 03.10away · Orebro4:1
  • 01.10away · Linkoping2:0
  • 29.09away · Skelleftea1:6
  • 26.09away · Brynas2:4
  • 24.09Frolunda3:7

Malmo

  • 03.10Brynas1:0
  • 01.10away · Skelleftea3:4 OT
  • 26.09Frolunda1:2
  • 22.09away · Vaxjo3:4 OT
  • 19.09away · HV 715:4 OT

Head to head

  • 29.01.2026Lulea — Malmo5:3
  • 20.12.2025Malmo — Lulea4:6
  • 01.11.2025Malmo — Lulea3:1
  • 13.09.2025Lulea — Malmo5:0
  • 22.02.2025Lulea — Malmo3:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
7, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsOrebro8302318–22-411
8, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMalmo7212218–22-410
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLulea8301420–26-610
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsVaxjo8211425–30-59

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • LuleaTimra10 October · SHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • FarjestadMalmo10 October · SHL
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 6:2. Model's score: 3:1.5.2

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasIF Bjorkloven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
  • DjurgardenOrebro
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.1
  • RogleHV 71
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • SkellefteaFarjestad
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
  • TimraFrolunda
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 223%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 1:3.4.6
  • VaxjoLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 46% will not happen in roughly 54 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →