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SHL (Swedish Hockey League) · Thursday, 8 October, MSK · SCA Arena

Timra — Frolunda

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Model prediction and result

4:1Missed
Timra33%
Draw in regulation23%
Frolunda44%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 4:1: the model's most likely outcome, Frolunda to win (57% incl. overtime), did not happen. That happens: an outcome at 57% fails in about 43 matches out of 100 on average.

Frolunda are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.3.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 35%.

Why

  • Frolunda are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.1.

Facts

  • Timra: 3 defeats in a row; Frolunda: 5 wins in a row.
  • Last 5 meetings: Timra 1 win, Frolunda 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Timra — Frolunda2.1–2.5
Timra to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Frolunda to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)35%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)65%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Timra
  • Timra goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Timra

  • 03.10Skelleftea1:4
  • 01.10away · Rogle1:4
  • 29.09away · Brynas0:1
  • 26.09Djurgarden3:2 OT
  • 22.09Orebro1:5

Frolunda

  • 03.10Djurgarden4:2
  • 01.10Brynas2:1
  • 26.09away · Malmo2:1
  • 24.09away · Lulea7:3
  • 22.09Farjestad3:2 SO

Head to head

  • 07.03.2026Frolunda — Timra3:1
  • 15.01.2026Timra — Frolunda1:2
  • 15.11.2025Timra — Frolunda4:2
  • 18.10.2025Frolunda — Timra3:1
  • 31.03.2025Timra — Frolunda0:1

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
1, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFarjestad8701034–8+2622
2, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsFrolunda8510226–20+617
3, Playoffs: straight to the quarter-finalsIF Bjorkloven8510222–20+217
12HV 718121424–29-58
13, Relegation play-offTimra8120515–22-77
14, Relegation play-offLinkoping7201412–23-117

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • LuleaTimra10 October · SHL
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 123%Final score 2:3 in overtime. Model's score: 3:1.4.7
  • IF BjorklovenFrolunda10 October · SHL
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 3:2. Model's score: 1:3.4.8

SHL on the same day

  • BrynasIF Bjorkloven
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 4:1. Model's score: 4:2.5.3
  • DjurgardenOrebro
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 2:1. Model's score: 3:2.5.1
  • LuleaMalmo
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 122%Final score 2:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.0
  • RogleHV 71
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 3:1.5.0
  • SkellefteaFarjestad
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 1:5. Model's score: 4:2.5.2
  • VaxjoLinkoping
    1The most likely outcome did not happen: 121%Final score 0:3. Model's score: 4:2.5.2

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 44% will not happen in roughly 56 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →