VHL (All-Russian Hockey League) · Saturday, 17 October, 09:00 MSK

Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Perm

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Model prediction for 17 October

Metallurg Novokuznetsk58%

Draw in regulation21%

Perm21%

Model estimate at 09:18 MSK

In short

Metallurg Novokuznetsk are clear favourites: 71% to win including overtime and shootout.

4.5 goals expected in total — close to the competition average (4.7).

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 34%.

Why

Metallurg Novokuznetsk are more dangerous in attack: 2.8 expected goals against 1.7.

Facts

League table: Metallurg Novokuznetsk — No. 7, 19 pts; Perm — No. 11, 16 pts. A gap of 3 pts.
Metallurg Novokuznetsk: 4 wins in a row.
Last 5 meetings: Metallurg Novokuznetsk 1 win, Perm 4.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Perm		2.8–1.7
Metallurg Novokuznetsk to win (incl. OT and shootout)		71%
Perm to win (incl. OT and shootout)		29%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)		34%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)		66%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

All totals
Totals incl. OT
Handicap Metallurg Novokuznetsk
Metallurg Novokuznetsk goals
Overtime chance
Full score grid

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Form

Metallurg Novokuznetsk

13.10Izhevsk3:2 SO
11.10Olympia2:0
05.10away · Kristall Saratov2:0
03.10away · Dizel2:0
01.10away · Tambov0:3

Perm

12.10away · HC Norilsk1:3
07.10Kaluga1:3
05.10AKM3:0
03.10Ryazan1:0
25.09away · Bars4:0

Head to head

21.01.2026Perm — Metallurg Novokuznetsk2:1 OT
30.10.2025Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Perm5:1
10.01.2025Perm — Metallurg Novokuznetsk3:2 SO
12.11.2024Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Perm0:2
11.12.2023Metallurg Novokuznetsk — Perm2:5

Full record: 6 meetings →

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#	Team	P	W	OTL	L	Goals	+/−	Pts
6, Playoffs	AKM	14	8	3	3	43–32	+11	19
7, Playoffs	Metallurg Novokuznetsk	14	8	3	3	27–16	+11	19
8, Playoffs	Kaluga	13	8	3	2	29–19	+10	19
10, Playoffs	SKA-VMF St. Petersburg	12	8	0	4	32–21	+11	16
11, Playoffs	Perm	12	8	0	4	30–23	+7	16
12, Playoffs	Tambov	13	7	2	4	34–34	0	16

Season 2026/27 · 2 points for a win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

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This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 58% will not happen in roughly 42 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →