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Czech Extraliga (hockey) · Sunday, 11 October, MSK · SKO-ENERGO Arena

Mlada Boleslav — Litvinov

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Model prediction and result

2:1Came true
Mlada Boleslav45%
Draw in regulation23%
Litvinov33%
Model estimate at MSK, the last one before kick-off

In short

Final score 2:1: the model's most likely outcome, Mlada Boleslav to win (57% incl. overtime), came true.

Mlada Boleslav are favourites: 57% to win including overtime and shootout.

The model expects few goals: 4.6 in total, against a competition average of 5.1.

Over 5.5 goals in regulation — 36%.

Why

  • Mlada Boleslav are more dangerous in attack: 2.5 expected goals against 2.1.

Probabilities

Expected goals: Mlada Boleslav — Litvinov2.5–2.1
Mlada Boleslav to win (incl. OT and shootout)57%
Litvinov to win (incl. OT and shootout)43%
Total over 5.5 (regulation)36%
Total under 5.5 (regulation)64%

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All totals and handicaps, team totals, the score grid, every factor and how the estimate moved before kick-off.

  • All totals
  • Totals incl. OT
  • Handicap Mlada Boleslav
  • Mlada Boleslav goals
  • Overtime chance
  • Full score grid
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Form

Mlada Boleslav

  • 09.10away · Kladno3:4
  • 04.10Liberec3:5
  • 02.10away · Kometa Brno2:3 SO
  • 29.09Plzen1:4
  • 27.09away · Vitkovice2:6

Litvinov

  • 09.10Olomouc3:1
  • 04.10Kladno2:3 OT
  • 02.10away · Trinec2:3
  • 29.09Liberec5:4 SO
  • 27.09away · Ceske Budejovice4:5

Head to head

  • 27.01.2026Mlada Boleslav — Litvinov1:0
  • 23.12.2025Litvinov — Mlada Boleslav6:1
  • 31.10.2025Mlada Boleslav — Litvinov3:2
  • 23.09.2025Litvinov — Mlada Boleslav4:2
  • 23.02.2025Litvinov — Mlada Boleslav1:0

Table

Table «Overall», season 2026/27
#TeamPWOTWOTLLGoals+/−Pts
9, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLiberec10402429–29014
10, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsLitvinov10311524–28-412
11, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsKometa Brno9221425–28-311
12, Play-in round for the quarter-finalsMlada Boleslav10211623–36-139
13Vitkovice9201621–32-117

Season 2026/27 · 3 points for a regulation win, 2 for an overtime or shootout win, 1 for an overtime or shootout loss

Full table

Next matches

  • LitvinovMountfield HK15 October · Czech Extraliga
    2The model's most likely outcome: 223%Model's score: 1:34.7
  • TrinecMlada Boleslav16 October · Czech Extraliga
    1The model's most likely outcome: 120%Model's score: 3:14.8

Czech Extraliga on the same day

  • Sparta PragueVitkovice
    1The most likely outcome came true: 118%Final score 3:0. Model's score: 4:1.5.5
  • Ceske BudejoviceLiberec
    2The most likely outcome did not happen: 222%Final score 4:3. Model's score: 2:3.5.1
  • Karlovy VaryKladno
    1The most likely outcome came true: 122%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • Kometa BrnoPlzen
    2The most likely outcome came true: 223%Final score 1:2 in overtime. Model's score: 1:2.4.4
  • Mountfield HKOlomouc
    1The most likely outcome came true: 120%Final score 3:1. Model's score: 3:1, exactly right.4.8
  • PardubiceTrinec
    1The most likely outcome came true: 121%Final score 5:4 in overtime. Model's score: 4:2.5.1

This is the model’s statistical estimate, not a recommendation. An outcome at 45% will not happen in roughly 55 matches out of 100. How to read probabilities →